Thursday, December 8, 2011

Phobos-Grunt, from Izvestiya

James Oberg posts this rather rough translation of an article in Russian from Izvestiya. The translation by "Moskit" appeared on the NASA Spaceflight forum. If I'm doing my phonetics correctly, the author is Viktor Khartov, Lavochkin's General Director and General designer.
        Every mission has three parameters: complexity, resources and risks. If we ask someone to send a complicated mission with little risk, it will involve huge resource. If you plan to send a mission to Mars in such a way, you would first test hardware on Earth orbit, then Lunar orbit, then model all aspects of the target mission. With F-G situation was a bit different - we did not fly to other planets for 25 years. There was a huge amount of new hardware without flight history. Practically only fuel tanks from Fregat were previously flown.

        Project itself was very complex, with a large number of instruments and many algorithms.  Maximum complexity and minimum resources translated to maximum risks.    It was decided the risk is ok to fly F-G. Apparently we stumbled right in the beginning of the flight. F-G flew well for two hours after the launch. It turned itself on, extended elements (solar panels), orientated to Sun and began to receive energy. It turned on all required hardware, and the Chinese satellite. It was all confirmed by telemetry. And then... it flew out of Russian zone of communication. Burn did not happen.    Our communication stations are designed for deep space and could not track fast-moving object in low orbit long enough to complete long link establishment procedures.

       In the beginning we could not target the satellite. It was tracked only by ground means, and position was inaccurate, calculated up to 6 degrees. That's why us, and European stations had to add modified antennas emitting wide beams. As a result we had a few sessions and received some telemetry.    It said that radio module works, link with onboard computer is up. Photos of on-orbit F-G showed that it was not tumbling, meaning Sun orientation module worked correctly.    We do not know when and why burn sequence was aborted. There could be many hypotheses, but fact is only one: F-G is Sun-orientated, onboard computer fulfills its function.    Logic says that when sequence is aborted, F-G will await commands from ground. Apparently it is still in that mode and we will continue attempts to make it alive.    As for the failure, there are many possibilities. For example it could be a programming error that could not be detected during modeling on Earth. Difference between model and real situation could be large enough to "stupify" computer.    It could have also been a hardware problem. Before we lost contact with F-G we enabled power to several modules, and theoretically damage during launch (?) might have caused problems with power supply.    But those are all working versions, official reason should be established by appropriate commission.

      As far as we know the rocket worked nominally. However we think that launcher should have been chosen differently, not Zenit, but Proton, which could take F-G directly to required orbit. Then F-G could be turned on and verified module by module, new comms line would be tested, and trajectory corrections made.    Decision about launcher was taken in 90s, and project was based on that.    F-G was a sort of jumping forward (cavalry charge?) over 25 years gap. It was understood that risk was high, but imagine if it were a success! However it is necessary to work step by step, systematically. That's why we should go back to Lunar exploartion.

        I would not get fixated on F-G. We have many projects. This year we launched Electro-L, a new generation sat. Our Fregat boosters have done their job on 8 launches from 3 locations, with one more launch from each location by end of this year.

Update:
"Moskit" provides this translation of an article in an online journal. Author not known.

        670 seconds after launch F-G separated from the rocket. It worked correctly, but afterwards F-G survived only two hours. When station "saw" Sun it should move "head" towards it. This means two onboard Sun detectors worked correctly. One hour later sunny zone ended, and those two detectors stopped working. Shadow lasted for 30 minutes, and unexpectedly F-G came out of it facing away. We did not expect it, F-G should have kept Sun orientation while in the shadow. Detectors saw Sun again, and started rotating F-G once again, but soon link was lost.

        It seems that star detectors, that so many blamed failure on, never got a chance to operate. They should have been turned on 4 minutes after link was lost, but F-G stop giving sings of life earlier. Star detectors found on F-G are reliable, they work on 20 space objects for 10-12 years.
....

        F-G was not ready for the flight. Many saw that, and many told to the management that flight control system made by Lavotchkin was not ready. Specialists simply did not have enough time to complete complex software running the mission.

        People blame youngsters at Lavotchkin, but this is unfair - they did not have a chance to learn. 15 years ago when Mars-96 was launched, it was assembled in -5C (with -20C outside) in Baikonur, in a room with broken windows. These were not conditions... there was not even toilets. Spaceship failed right after launch due to booster malfunction - completely logical final.

        Today we see a birth of Russian space program practically from ashes, with all the growing pains. You should have seen glowing eyes of the young people working on F-G... they only recently began to be paid decently.

        If there will be repressions, all will be lost again.

23 comments:

astroguy said...

"I would not get fixated on F-G."

Maybe, but this is fairly disappointing, still. AND, it's the Russians' fourth Mars-bound mission in a row over the last two+ decades that has failed.

Chris Lopes said...

Sounds a little like the Russian version of "faster, better, cheaper....pick any two."

Does anyone know why the Zenit launcher was chosen over the Proton?

strahlungsamt said...

If they had only listened to Hoagland and Bara, and aimed it at 19.5 degrees, they would have had perpetual motion and be on Phobos by now. But no.
Instead they listen to those boring "scientists" huh! See, they know nothing now. Lost their mission.
Told you so. Mnyah mnyah mnyah!

Next time, aim it at 19.5 degrees (or 195 or 295, same thing really. REMEMBER. THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE!)

jourget said...

Chris,

It's possible that due to the financial difficulties Russia was facing in the '90s, the Zenit was chosen for reasons of economy. The Proton is a bull that'll easily get you there, but the Zenit is one of the cheapest vehicles on a per-pound basis in existence.

Chris Lopes said...

jourget,
Thanks for the information. I had assumed (incorrectly) that the Proton might be cheaper, as it is an older design. I thought maybe someone was just trying to promote a favored design bureau.

Expat,
That update is kind of sad. I'm thinking of all those space engineers who dedicated their lives to keeping Russia in the space business and how this has got to be a crushing blow. I've always believed that the more countries involved in space the better.

Biological_Unit said...

Depressing ... indeed.

Biological_Unit said...

Special Forces Task Group: S.W.O.R.D. A.K.A "M-33" (The M both for Mason AND Militant ~ a Member Unit of His Holy Majesties Secret Service SWORD

My orders where both very broad and very specific at the same time. End drug trafficking in the State of Alaska - and prepare for zero-g combat and boarding exercises - learn and implement fortified outposts to prepare for National Park Lodges of planet. The first I saw coming - the second I did not - the third made a skid mark in my shorts. I knew that the Order as a whole - that is HHMSS Sword and all of its support personnel wold migrate from the Earth to the Moon, Mars, and then further out establishing permanent habitats as National Park lodges (as a front of course).
I was quite surprised to be selected as my efforts behind an assault rifle have always been what is politely called unorthodox.

I just posted that because it's hilarious!

Chris Lopes said...

Bob Zimmerman's site has a couple of stories that bite Hoagland's narrative in the ass. One is on the latest images from Vesta (surprise, no artificial structures), and the other is on the Russians launching 3 astronauts/cosmonauts to the ISS (once again failing to abandon the place). You think Hoagland ever gets tired of reality constantly laughing at him?

Biological_Unit said...

God Bless the Soyuz spacecraft, and why isn't unit swArd doing any launches??

Chris Lopes said...

So the Hoagmeister is now claiming that Obama is sending secret messages via a Christmas card. You know when he breaks out the "Dan Brown Secret Symbology Decoder Ring"(tm), the bull shit well is running dry.

Anonymous said...

@Chris Lopes - THANK YOU for beating me to a post about the "secret christmas card" - utter fother mucking bs!

I've been reading through 240+ posts in sheer disbelief at the level of delusion so many people are DESPERATE to be a part of and perpetuate... unbelievable!... (well, not THAT unbelievable, Hoagland will say anything, create or ignore any information so long as it suits his "i heart barry" love fest)

Hopefully this blog owner will create a new thread specifically for this topic - I look forward showing something where Dick (that same guy who doesn't make predictions) says King Barry o' Teleprompter is not only a re-incarnated Egyptian god (as we've heard before) BUT he is going to announce to the world that we are not alone. (And yes, I can prove this).

Until then... happy holidays... oh - and stay tuned!

Trekker said...

Well said, Anonymous. And what's all this fuss the fans are making about the 'inverted triangle' in the window? Surely it's obvious it's the light shining in from another wing of the building. I googled the White house to see where the library was located and looked at it on the satellite view of Google maps. It's obvious it's nothing more than the light shining in from a window on the northern extension of the White House. Can none of the fans look up google maps and see for themselves?

Anonymous said...

Ah yes Trekker, but what you're "blatantly refusing to see" is that the inverted triangle (inverted at 19.5 degree angle too, probably!) represents magical powers which represents super-special hyper dimensional physics which represents elenin which represents 19.5 which represents mars which is code for aliens which is code for egypt which is code for 19.5 (again) which UNEQUIVOCALLY PROVES King Barry is re-incarnated horus and is here to save the day, after he has xmas dinner with "our ancestors" at 19.5 hawaii - this will be absolutely obvious, clear as day to anyone who has bought Dark Mission or paid their $10 for the video conference Jokeland is still banging on about.

Hopefully you took the above as just tongue-in-cheek sarcasm Trekker, but you're absolutely right - 28000 sheep would much rather see whatever they want to see -I'm sorry, I mean whatever Captain Enterpise sees- than actually apply some logic - after all, surely it's *outright impossible* that it's quite simply just a christmas card...

Chris Lopes said...

Expat, I have to agree that this latest round of the super secret symbology game would seem too large a target of ridicule for you to pass up. It's Hoagland at his most insane and absurd, literally pulling stuff out of his anal orifice. The faithful's reaction to it is even more priceless.

Trekker said...

@Anonymous - Lol! Don't worry. I took it in the spirit it was meant to be taken in!!

expat said...

Well, I've read some of that ridiculous thread on the RCH FB page. Seems to me some of the commenters are being satirical, as well they might.

I've enjoyed the comments here but I don't think I'll make a new thread.

Chris Lopes said...

I think you are making a mistake there Expat (there's comedy gold in them there nonsense), but it's your blog. In any case, this may not be the last we see of it. It seems that Hoagland has moved onto another "celestial object that means something"; Comet Lovejoy. He's using the secret message stuff as a thread of evidence to back up that claim (gotta admit, using one fantasy to prove another is a cute trick), though I'm sure he'll find more evidence after careful research (AKA making it up). Whether or not it'll be enough for more C2C time is anyone's guess.

Anonymous said...

Fair enough, Expat. I think we all know how increasingly ridiculous Dick is becoming every time he has a new, groundbreaking BULLETIN to share with his 29,000 sheeple, without having to dedicate a thread to "symbolic christmas cards".

Perhaps the next thread can be about when TPTB finally announce to the world our alien ancestor selves have returned (Horus-incarnate is having xmas dinner with them at 19.5 hawaii dont you know!)...

Until then, I'll get on with some last-minute christmas shopping (only 19.5 hours left to xmas!) - a copy of Dark Mission and Awake Aware dvd for everyone!!...

And in the spirit of xmas joy and end of year festive fun, perhaps we should have a RCH "blooper reel"?! You know, if it doesn't take several re-incarnated life times to compile...

http://i44.tinypic.com/54u0cn.png
http://i39.tinypic.com/bis7rb.png
http://i42.tinypic.com/2dgw0uf.png
http://i41.tinypic.com/wrxvo.png
http://i41.tinypic.com/oumbe1.png
http://i40.tinypic.com/4iiqfa.png

expat said...

My fave is "Things are about to get VERY interesting....:)"

Reminds me of what he posted just before the EPSC Congress in September last year: The fun is about to begin. We know what happened next.

Anonymous said...

Well I suppose it is impossible to be wrong when you're half-predicting things to get "interesting" (whatever that means) - I mean, it's not like he says something specific like barry is about to tell the world we're not alone...... oh wait, HE DOES!

(But if you don't hear about it on the news, it's only because there's a much bigger, multidimensional chess game being played that only Captain Enterprise can grasp at... not that it, er, didn't happen!!)

Chris Lopes said...

Anon,
Great collection of Hoaglandisms. It's amazing how much (as Expat pointed out with his example) Hoagland's tune stays the same despite the total failure of his fantasies to ever match reality. There has to be a lot of fan base turn over going on, because no one following him for any length of time would fail to see the game he's playing. Either that, or some people are just too wedded to their delusions to let the facts get in the way.

Anonymous said...

Delusions and the desire to believe will always be way, way more powerful/captivating in the minds of the sheeple rather than these "nit picking" FACTS to which you refer... (and if you point this out -ie Elenin/YU55- you'll be attacked by those loyal to the guy who does all their thinking for them).

I feel more and more "dumberer" everytime I find myself on RCH's page... I think I'll take a festive break - unless he publishes a picture leaked to him by his secret-sources from a secret NASA camera showing Elenin is coming back to earth and is being pulled by 19.5 reindeers.......

Anonymous said...

Damn, I forgot to post the picture of where Jokeland says the dog's position in the picture represents the exact position of the Sphinx... (now I'm not a qualified Egyptologist like Captain Enterprise is, but I'm pretty sure the Sphinx is a feline not a canine - but hey, it's got four legs and is kinda the same shape, so lets not split hairs over the details).

Hopefully Santa will bring Hoagie a big box of straws for christmas, he doesn't seem to have many left to clutch at...