Friday, July 16, 2010

Hoagland invents a non-existent event so he can say "I predicted that"

        You may find this hard to believe, but I swear it's as true as the day is long.

        On the 14th July, at 12:30 pm, Richard Hoagland posted on his FB page, on the subject of the new cap on the Deepwater Horizon gusher:

I'll bet they quietly closed the first valve at "19.5" tonight ... on 7-14--
Just as we predicted.
Ritual Uber Alles .... :)

        Well, Richard dear, there are just two problems with that. One is that they didn't close any valves at 19:30 that night. The other is that you didn't predict it.

        For most of the 14th, the capping stack wasn't even on the well-head. It had been hauled back up to the surface to replace a leaky hydraulic line. Hoagland had indeed suggested (on 13th July) that the utter madness that is numerology was playing a part in BP operations, but he never predicted the first event at 7:30 pm.

        We're quite used to Hoagland's claims of "I predicted that" being fraudulent, but now they venture into new territory, referring to an event that never even happened.

        Meanwhile, one firm prediction he did make — on 12th July at 11:50 pm — looks like going down in flames along with just about every other prediction he's ever recorded.

suddenly -- the White House is DEMANDING real proof of BP's claims ... and this "48-hour-pressure-test" of the NEW cap, is to PROVE to the White House the actual existence of those other fissures ....

So, if THAT is the case, the much-hyped "new cap pressure test" will FAIL ....

        Right now the gusher has stopped, and the pressure is reportedly 6,700 psi. Too low to call a success, but too high to cry failure. Last night on the radio Hoagland dismissed the news as "another BP lie."

I have a different opinion about who's lying here.

Update #1: 15:30 EDT July 17th
        The 48-hour period of the originally-planned test of the 3-ram capping stack has now expired, with no oil leak. Oil pressure is at 6,745 psi, rising at about 2 psi/hr and expected to stabilise at 6,800. There are two credible theories as to why the pressure did not reach the hoped-for 8,000 psi. One is simply that so much oil has flowed out of the damaged well that the resource is actually depleted: another is a phenomenon of cross-flow meaning, essentially, that oil is circulating between one underground cavity and another.

        One very positive data point is that the temperature in the well has reduced to ambient. When oil is flowing the temperature rises significantly.

        BP has announced that the testing period will now be extended for a further 24 hours, and also that when tests conclude they will release the valves and start recovering 60,000 barrels a day from the well. If you want to be cynical, you might say that BP can hardly wait to start generating some revenue from the damn well. Cynics will be looking for BP to find excuses to delay the final cementing that will kill their "golden goose," currently scheduled for early August. It does also seem that BP has been keeping information closer to its chest than is appropriate in the circumstances.

        However, the bottom line is that the test started on July 15th DID NOT FAIL.

So let's summarise Richard Hoagland's errors up to this point.

* He wrote that "our data indicates that [Deepwater Horizon] was sabatoged[sic]" but never came up with any such data.

* He stated that there was a 20-mile wide bubble of methane at a pressure of 100,000 psi threatening to erupt. This has found no support from people who know what they're talking about, and has been ridiculed by geologists.

* He stated that there was a gash in the Earth's crust 10 miles from Deepwater Horizon, gushing 120,000 barrels a day. This is the bizarre opinion of only one other man -- Matthew Simmons of the Ocean Energy Institute.

* He very confidently predicted that the cap test would fail.

* He called the preliminary announcement that the well had been capped "another BP lie."

        So Richard Hoagland's performance on this event has been as dismally inaccurate as his previous record of trash and/or alarmist predicting. Why does Coast to Coast AM continue to give him access to their audience?

Update #2: 12:00 EDT July 22nd
Yesterday, Hoagland posted another misguided and misinformed plea to his FB page:

If we can keep them from doing this stupid "static kill," this still can be resolved in safety.

But, that requires that we communiate IMMEDIATELY with Congressman Ed Markey, demanding that this latest, insane idea of BP be permanently shelved (the "static kill"), that the well be placed BACK in "containment" (oil piped up to the ships, ... thus relieving the pressure ...) until the relief well is in position to begin to kill this monster FROM THE BOTTOM (which will NOT put additional pressure on the well or the fragile formations above the high-pressure methane/oil reservoir ...).

        He clearly thinks that BP operations have increased pressure in the well, instead of, as is the actual fact, decreasing it. And, considering that he characterized the initial announcement that the well had been capped as "another BP lie" he's not supposed to think that the "static kill" is even a serious option.

        Question to RCH: Why hasn't that ENORMOUS quantity of oil flowing from that OTHER gash in the seabed not been seen by anyone??

        Meanwhile, Adm. Allen and his advisors have one hell of a hard decision to make. A possible tropical storm is headed for the site. The relief well drilling has already been suspended and a storm plug installed. It looks like the rigs and ships surrounding the Macondo well will have to leave for at least five days. Do they leave the well capped and unsupervised, or do they release the oil once more?

Update #3: 16:30 EDT July 26th
        Well, they took the brave decision to keep the lid on. Tropical storm Bonnie fizzled, and all the vessels are now back on station. Oil pressure is 6,900 psi — a good indicator that the well is not leaking into the rocks — and the top kill is scheduled to begin a week from today. Still no sign whatever of the MUCH LARGER oil leak Richard Hoagland has twice referred to.

        On his FB page today, Hoagland trotted out some story about HAARP being used to create southerly winds, as "they" are now "increasingly desperate" to keep oil off the beaches. What a load of claptrap. The person in this who's increasingly desperate is Hoagland himself. No mud logs, no methane explosion, no huge gash. It's now obvious to everyone that his comment that the capping of the well was "another BP lie" was itself a lie.


Chris Lopes said...

You had to know that the guy was good for at least another sequel. As the BP story dies down, it will be interesting to see where he goes next.

Chris Lopes said...

Ex Pat, you make it sound like this Hoagland fellow might not know what he is talking about, and is just pulling stuff out of his wazoo. Since his sources are no better than anyone else's (in some sense, they are probably worse), none of this should be a surprise. My guess is, he was hoping for this to go on a bit longer so he could milk it at his next conference. He still will to a certain extent (he has too much invested in it at this point), but it won't be as big as a draw. Once it becomes clear that the cap is holding, and the big bad methane monster of the deep isn't likely to show up, he'll have to move on.

expat said...

Very true. If he still plans to post the promised "White Paper," I sincerely hope he's revising it like crazy.

Watch for him to say that what has been announced is not necessarily what's really happening. By allowing himself to state that we're all being misled (without any evidence, naturally,) he hopes to place himself in a "no lose" position with respect to the news story. Such intellectual dishonesty seems to be routinely excused by the true believers. Sad.

Chris Lopes said...

Very true. To really make it work, he should have posted the "paper" earlier. Posting after the fact has got to be a bit anticlimactic for him. Even the true believers aren't going to be much interested in this stuff in a couple of weeks.

Biological_Unit said...

In a way, this is a form of what this is BU. This code spelled out to me & shown me (ahem) that this is also attributed as being a RE-HEARING, for one that took place in the past, that not went the way it was hoped it would in a past hearing. Involving Hoagland. TIME was looked through before that hearing, to help create a future re-hearing & form of punishment that was wanted to be given unto Hoagland. It not worked out that way originally. So THEY FIXED HIM IN PLACE, before the hearing, so the future can unfold for a new hearing as it were. I admit this is strange shit. But Hoagland himself in the past before we fell out, ADMITTED CONNECTION to the so called nonsense of this code I also evejn thought it was! UNTIL he confirmed it, HOWEVER, with a twist. You see he did NOT admit at having been at a previous hearing. As the code suggests & many other interesting things connected to that. No he did not admit that. No..INSTEAD,... HE ADMITS AT GOING TO IT, IN THE PAST, BUT NEVER MAKING IT THERE!!! (JAW DROP WHOOP DEE DOO)

The above writing was from the demented Mars Revealer

He is so crazy that RCH looks good in comparison. He seems way out of his depth. He spams his own blog suddenly once I show up with an innocuous question!

Chris Lopes said...

BU, I agree. Not even Hougie's logic is that disjointed.

Biological_Unit said...

Mars Revealer is the weakest link in the Hoagie Parallel Reality.

Just drop "Mars Revealer" in any correspondence and feel the panicky awareness of deep, dark psychosis being flung back in the frightened words of the cultists.

Biological_Unit said...

This Video is about RCH predicting a FAKE Ufo Disclosure event.

Chris Lopes said...

BU, that link was just beautiful. What he was talking about there was so removed from what he normally talks about, you had to know he was playing to the crazies in Alex Jones' audience. Even Jones had to stop for a few seconds after Hoagland mentioned the altering time thing. THAT version of Hoagland never makes it to C2C, though some of it is in his books.

Chris Lopes said...

Great update and great question. You have to love the arrogance of the logic though. THEY (the silly people who went to school, studied, and have worked in the field for years) are all wrong and I (self educated genius of the modern age) am right! The good Admiral and his advisers do have a tough call to make, but that call will be made as an informed decision.

Chris Lopes said...

My thinking is he'll keep with this until the ESA conference in September. The "paper" is due out soon, so that will give him the rest of August to play with that. How long he can keep the fans "staying tuned" is any ones guess, but we will see. He may get a guess shot or two on C2C in the mean time, but I wouldn't count on it. With the oil leak effectively stopped, it isn't really headline any more.