tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post4769927407909736852..comments2023-12-19T09:40:12.020-08:00Comments on The Emoluments of Mars: Probabilities and nincompoopsexpathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10369924104634464934noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-28476753171654887002011-09-24T12:27:07.074-07:002011-09-24T12:27:07.074-07:00Virgin,
Some of us just find discussing the cra...Virgin,<br /> Some of us just find discussing the crazy ideas of kooks like Hoagland and the people who follow him entertaining. If that's not your idea of entertainment, so be it. :)Chris Lopeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15603182786879935663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-3131637228773513442011-09-24T08:48:04.381-07:002011-09-24T08:48:04.381-07:00Virgins: Pretty sad, I guess. I'm in semi-reti...Virgins: Pretty sad, I guess. I'm in semi-retirement so I don't have to justify my time to anyone.<br /><br />Thanks for the contribution.expathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10369924104634464934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-78286957479783662132011-09-24T06:43:50.817-07:002011-09-24T06:43:50.817-07:00As much as i think hoagwash is a cretin, I think y...As much as i think hoagwash is a cretin, I think you lot are as pathetic as him. I would not give him a second thought, you lot, seem to give him many thoughts, how sad is that?Virgins Onlinenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-42903019751756001832011-09-23T09:24:05.905-07:002011-09-23T09:24:05.905-07:00While we're waiting for confirmation, we'l...While we're waiting for confirmation, we'll have to be content with jokes like this:<br /><br />"We don't allow faster than light neutrinos in here" said the bartender. <br />A neutrino walks into a bar.expathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10369924104634464934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-16862959292452887602011-09-22T17:28:31.144-07:002011-09-22T17:28:31.144-07:00Well I'm sure it was 19.5 hours (using HD-Math...Well I'm sure it was 19.5 hours (using HD-Math) somewhere on the planet when the announcement was made, and that somewhere was somewhere IMPORTANT! :DChris Lopeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15603182786879935663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-43967175279023744902011-09-22T15:23:04.842-07:002011-09-22T15:23:04.842-07:00There is.
We just don't know it yet.
:D :D :DThere is.<br />We just don't know it yet.<br />:D :D :DAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-18972251535031030382011-09-22T14:18:00.419-07:002011-09-22T14:18:00.419-07:00Is there a 19.5 anywhere in there? GOD I hope not....Is there a 19.5 anywhere in there? GOD I hope not...expathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10369924104634464934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-85553434950584845752011-09-22T13:21:53.285-07:002011-09-22T13:21:53.285-07:00HEADS UP:
Be on the look out for reactions to thes...HEADS UP:<br />Be on the look out for reactions to these:<br /><br />http://news.yahoo.com/cern-claims-faster-light-particle-measured-180644818.html<br /><br />http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15017484Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-27290416185607808882011-09-18T17:18:19.933-07:002011-09-18T17:18:19.933-07:00Expat,
For what it's worth, there is a downs...Expat,<br /> For what it's worth, there is a downside to that strategy for him. He is constantly having to answer really stupid questions (like when is Elenin going to hit Earth) that interrupt his narrative. The faithful are as undisciplined as they are gullible.Chris Lopeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15603182786879935663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-51578064066508071442011-09-18T15:57:29.169-07:002011-09-18T15:57:29.169-07:00I just had a look and it seems plain that, by chas...I just had a look and it seems plain that, by chasing away anyone with any kind of clue about physics and astronomy, he's left himself by default with the crazies. Perhaps that makes him happy.expathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10369924104634464934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-15195055138667437912011-09-18T13:06:59.956-07:002011-09-18T13:06:59.956-07:00Hoagland's tolerance for descent has certainly...Hoagland's tolerance for descent has certainly decreased. I had some interesting exchanges with him but now my posts are just deleted. Some of his supporters have expressed their displeasure at this "censorship".Tim O.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-14013255946156949722011-09-17T09:00:37.388-07:002011-09-17T09:00:37.388-07:00Expat,
At least you can admit your mistakes. Tim...Expat,<br /> At least you can admit your mistakes. Tim gently and jokingly suggested (on Hoagland's FB page) that Richard consult a mathematician before trying to work out probabilities. That comment was promptly taken out behind the barn and shot. The pseudo-scientific method in action. :)Chris Lopeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15603182786879935663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-69357600208041310282011-09-17T06:53:26.003-07:002011-09-17T06:53:26.003-07:00Yep, you're right. I've corrected it. Slig...Yep, you're right. I've corrected it. Slightly embarrassing since I was taking Hoagland to task for bad odds-calling. Thanks for picking that up.expathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10369924104634464934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-41088365627225626572011-09-16T18:18:01.567-07:002011-09-16T18:18:01.567-07:00Yes a small point expat. there are 36 possible rol...Yes a small point expat. there are 36 possible rolls 6 2 is different then 2 6. Consult a basic backgammon book and avoid the craps table :--)<br /><br />1/36 is correct.Tim Oldfathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-82190500356355623172011-09-16T17:02:14.389-07:002011-09-16T17:02:14.389-07:00I say 1 in 21 because there are repetitions. For e...I say 1 in 21 because there are repetitions. For example, a 6/2 is the same as a 2/6 because you don't care which die has the 6 and which has the 2. Small point.expathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10369924104634464934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-89366362019751836762011-09-16T16:32:56.659-07:002011-09-16T16:32:56.659-07:00Tim,
I'm not sure "embarrassed" is...Tim,<br /> I'm not sure "embarrassed" is the right emotion on this one. Remember, he got PAID for that work both at Leeds and probably on the Camelot web-conference. He's also likely to use it at the conference he's doing on the 23rd. As mathematically absurd as it might be, it's working for him. I'm more appalled than embarrassed by that.Chris Lopeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15603182786879935663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-10623159253346519082011-09-16T16:19:07.643-07:002011-09-16T16:19:07.643-07:00I was actually embarrassed for Hoagland when I hea...I was actually embarrassed for Hoagland when I heard him venture into probability on C2C.<br /> I believe the odds on rolling snake eyes actually is 1/36.Tim Oldfathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-56566004568154747742011-09-14T18:02:46.884-07:002011-09-14T18:02:46.884-07:00BU,
I'm afraid you are right.BU,<br /> I'm afraid you are right.Chris Lopeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15603182786879935663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-69416892463277646822011-09-14T16:43:37.627-07:002011-09-14T16:43:37.627-07:00I think yous probably spend more time thinking abo...I think yous probably spend more time thinking about RCH's bogus theories than his 'tards. They "feel" at issues!Biological_Unithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01321950739186432108noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-6905666837072945932011-09-13T09:42:35.517-07:002011-09-13T09:42:35.517-07:00Anon,
That was a great link. He nailed Hoagland&...Anon,<br /> That was a great link. He nailed Hoagland's calculations to the wall. The use of histograms to find the REAL probability was particularly helpful. I'll be going back to that site again, that's for sure.Chris Lopeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15603182786879935663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-6527972891976527022011-09-13T08:39:03.043-07:002011-09-13T08:39:03.043-07:00FYI
EXPOSING PseudoAstronomy.
http://podcast.sjrde...FYI<br />EXPOSING PseudoAstronomy.<br />http://podcast.sjrdesign.net/<br /><br />Episode 4 (BONUS): Comet Elenin Special<br /><br />NOTE: This episode was slightly updated and re-posted as of September 10, 2011, 5:00 GMT.<br /><br />http://podcast.sjrdesign.net/media/podcasts/PseudoAstro_004.mp3<br /><br />Recap: For some odd reason, there are a lot of crazy claims out there about Comet Elenin. In recognition of its closest approach to the sun on September 10, this bonus episode addresses many of the common claims out there about the comet including an exposé into Richard Hoagland's magical numerology that apparently proves i'ts a spaceship.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-37243228582250882742011-09-09T21:16:27.880-07:002011-09-09T21:16:27.880-07:00Anon,
Exactly right on the infinity argument. I ...Anon,<br /> Exactly right on the infinity argument. I hadn't thought of that.Chris Lopeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15603182786879935663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-87862381967612096642011-09-09T17:55:55.651-07:002011-09-09T17:55:55.651-07:00It's painfully obvious that RCH never had to s...It's painfully obvious that RCH never had to sit down and solve an actual combinatorics problem in any probability course.<br />The range for a couple of those parameters could actually be tending towards infinity, depending on instrumentation, methodology and precision of the measurements.[ Apparent magnitude & Orbital Inclination].<br />Doesn't he actually make the case for the randomness of the event ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-68321318530307221492011-09-09T14:16:34.885-07:002011-09-09T14:16:34.885-07:00Expat, you might want to cover the infamous "...Expat, you might want to cover the infamous "tetrahedral shield" issue (Don Davis did some work on that: https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10150354459144808.401100.521199807&l=f383ed6ff2&type=1) and the disintegration (or not according to Hoagland)of Comet Elenin.Chris Lopeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15603182786879935663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8051630750074978974.post-44968811576026430992011-09-09T13:16:53.370-07:002011-09-09T13:16:53.370-07:00Actually he's even wrong where he's wrong....Actually he's even wrong where he's wrong. The time he states is for a very specific time zone (according to him) so he should have included the number of times zones in his calculations. Also, if you are going to be specific about inclination (BTW, what is special about 1.84?) you have to include the significant digits in your calculation. In this case, it would be 360/.01 or 36000 to 1. Of course since his basic assumption is completely bogus, little math errors don't matter.Chris Lopeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15603182786879935663noreply@blogger.com